While the Gate River showdown is going to be exciting, the US Marathon Championship is what I'm really looking forward to. There are a lot of question marks about the race and guys looking to breakthrough to the next level. And in the marathon, anything can happen.
The marathon in LA is going to be warm and rolling. Some people are freaking out about the heat but I really don't believe it will be too much of an issue. Race time temps should be around 60 degrees, with a very low dew point. But even with the moderate temperatures, if someone goes out a little bit over their head, it will come back for them later.
One interesting factor in the race is that while it's the US Championships, there are also some insanely fast foreigners in the field. And those other fast runners will definitely change the dynamics of the race. In a US only field, someone could break away and have it be a huge gamble since they would be all alone. But in this race, the "leader" could have help from foreign runners. If the US race was run separately, the results could look drastically different than what they will be on Sunday. So that will make the race more tactical and interesting to watch.
What I feel will affect the runners more than the weather is the nature of the course. Los Angeles is a net downhill that also has a lot of climbing as well. Almost like a less glorified and not as extreme, Boston Marathon course. .
So a big issue in this race will be who has specifically prepared not only for the marathon distance, but for nature of the course. You can't build LA Marathon specific marathon fitness on the track or flat roads. Looking at the NAZ Elite's logs, it seems they've placed a huge focus on being prepared for this course, which is going to pay dividends. There's not a lot of training info out on the other guys, so the picks are more of a gamble.
Trying to figure out the top 10 and especially the top five resulted in nothing but headaches. I've had Ryan Hall, Matt Llano, Scott Smith, Daniel Tapia and Jared Ward all winning the thing at one point. Or, if LA somehow had a major earthquake and debris was strewn everywhere, I had Max King winning the show. You always hear that you should go with your gut instinct, but I really don't know what it was. So this could be completely off, but I'll give it the old college try.
1. Matt Llano: I originally had Jared Ward winning but decided to switch. I feel that the NAZ Elite group is going to be very well prepared for this race and it will show. This is Llano's second attempt at the marathon. He had hopes of a 2:10 at Chicago last fall, but he struggled home in 2:17. I'm sure he hated life for a while after that but it's good to completely fall apart in the marathon. It teaches you to be more patient, reassess your tactics and training and to make a better go at it next time. He ran a decent half-marathon two months ago at the US Championships (62:22) and his training looks on-point for this one. I saw one workout he did where his training partner was going too hard and instead of going with him, he stuck back and did his own thing. That's the kind of patience and will-power you need to perform in a race like this weekend.
2. Jared Ward: A lot of people were pumped about Diego Estrada's Houston Half-Marathon performance, where he ran a 60:51. I was as equally impressed by Jared Ward's 61:42 because I feel he's better suited to the marathon distance than Estrada. This will be Ward's third marathon and in his last one, he finished 2nd at the US Marathon Championships in 2:14:00. In that race, he ran a patient, smart race which will really help out in warmer conditions, on a rolling course, like he's going to face in LA.
3. Ryan Hall: It seems like he has been dubbed the favorite but I don't really see why. Yeah, he has the American Record in the half-marathon, finished fourth at Boston in 2011 and ran 2:06 at London in 2008. But his last marathon was a 2:17 at Boston last year and his last completed marathon before that was over three years ago. But to be honest, I really have no idea what he will do. He's used to fighting for the win in big marathons and if he tries to do that in this race, he will pay for it. If he runs to win the American Title, he could potentially pull it off. He's always had a mystique about him but there are a lot of hungry guys out there who smell blood. But if I miss the race and hear the winner of the American race ran 2:09, I'd bet nearly anything it was Ryan Hall. He will be fun to watch and hopefully he competes well.
4. Daniel Tapia: His last marathon was the 2013 World Championships where he ran and a few months before that, he executed a perfectly paced/planned Boston Marathon to finish 9th. Five months before that, he won the CIM Marathon in 2:16, which had terrible wind and rain and a tough field. What do Boston and CIM have in common? They are both net downhill courses with constant rollers. And the Los Angeles Marathon fits perfectly into that equation. The last several months, he's been training full time in Mammoth with Andrew Kastor's group. It seems to be working well as he ran 63:52 at Houston in January. That may not seem too fast for someone competing for a national title but if he beats you in a half, he will destroy you in a marathon.
5. Scott Smith: This guy is starting to perform really well and is due for another big breakthrough soon. His training log shows the makings of someone who is ready to turn some heads and he also has the best first name in the field. When he made his big move at the 2014 US Marathon Championships, I thought he was an idiot and would pay for it later. I was the idiot because he finished in third place, running 2:14. His last marathon before that was a 2:16 at CIM in 2013, which is somewhat of a similar course to LA. I hate putting him fifth because he's a legit top three threat and I can't see him finishing much lower than this.
6. Sergio Reyes: He seems to be Mr. Consistency in marathons. He's a smart racer and he always shows up with strong performances in the big races. He's struggled a couple of times on this course in the past but living outside Los Angeles puts him in good position to train for the course, be perfectly adapted to the weather and have some hometown fan support. He is a former US Marathon Champion and set his PR of 2:13:34 at the US Championships in 2013.
7. Mike Morgan: It would be dumb not to put a Hanson's runner in here. It seems like they have both their fans and haters but they know how to train for the marathon and execute their race plans well. Morgan ran under 2:15 twice last year (Chicago and Boston) and should have another great performance this weekend.
8. Scotty Bauhs: Was one of the top distance runners in the US from 2008-2012. In 2012, he ran 13:28 for 5000m and 61:30 for the half-marathon before disappearing for a little while. Last Labor Day, he placed 5th at the New Haven 20k, less than thirty seconds behind the winner (Girma Mecheso) and ahead of guys like Sean Quigley, Fernando Cabada, Matt Llano and Jared Ward. Since he's a first timer, I'm being a little conservative here, especially on a course like LA. If he runs well, he could potentially be a top five guy.
9. Craig Curley: Had a good tune-up at the Houston Half in January (63:31) and is starting to find his gears again. He recently started being coached by Michael Aish, who has a wealth of distance running knowledge and experience and should have him ready to go. He set his PR of 2:15:15 at the 2013 US Marathon Championships, held as part of the Twin Cities Marathon and has been competitive on the US road racing circuit for the past several years.
10. Sage Canaday: I decided to have a little bit of fun with this pick. The guy catches some flak for his videos and promotion but he seems to be a smart guy who knows what works well for him. I'm somewhat of a closet ultra-fan and I enjoy following their races. When the race starts, you can catch a nap then do a little bit of yard work and you barely miss anything. And the the thing I love about it is that a guy can have a huge lead and then absolutely die and then lose not several minutes total but several minutes per mile. I feel like if the weather gets warmer than expected and the pack goes out a little too quick, Sage can roll some guys up later in the race. In ultras, the runners deal with more uncertainty and adversity, which I feel will be an advantage for this race. Regardless, if he doesn't get the OTQ here, he will catch some heat but you have to respect him (and Max King) for stepping out of their world for this one.
Showing posts with label US Marathon Championships. Show all posts
Showing posts with label US Marathon Championships. Show all posts
Saturday, March 14, 2015
Saturday, October 5, 2013
US Marathon Championships
This weekend, the Twin Cities Marathon is also hosting the U.S. Half-Marathon Championships. $25,000 goes to the winner, and they can also pick up an extra $1,500 if they win the overall race as well. The final men's list can be found here. Normally, I think I'm a know-it-all and will predict the top 5-10 or whatever. But in this race, I have no freaking idea who will win, as I believe about 8-10 different guys can. What surprises me the most is who isn't running. I definitely expected one of the Twin Cities guys to show up and defend their turf. If Andrew Carlson was healthy (and I don't know if he is or isn't) and on the entry list, he'd be my pick to win the thing. He ran 2:11 in his debut, limped his way to a 2:17 in terrible weather in Houston and has the 5k speed to breakaway from guys late in the race. Mike Reneau ran a huge breakthrough race this past spring with his 2:13 and he would be a top 3 threat and Joe Moore is always a gamer as well but he doesn't seem in-love with the marathon. If I were a betting man, he's probably thinking about laying some whoopings on some guys at the US 12k Championships and Club Cross Country Championships at the end of the year, followed by a fast half-marathon in January at the US Half-Marathon Championships.
If I were Matt Tegenkamp's coach, I would have thrown him into this race. Maybe he's getting a sweet appearance fee for racing Chicago, but this would have been the perfect race for him. He would be the favorite (and maybe a big one) and he would be able to hang at the front of the pack the entire race and work on getting a knack for marathon racing tactics while also getting a feel for the marathon distance. Then in the spring, he could run a fast time-trial type marathon. No more armchair quarterbacking him and onto armchair quarterbacking others.
I view this race as a two-gang fight until one man is left. The first gang is the speedsters. They either haven't run a marathon yet or haven't run that matches up with their abilities in the shorter distances. I'm dubbing Shadrack Biwott as the leader of these roughens, with Josphat Boit, Joseph Chirlee, Christo Landry and Tim Ritchie backing him up. On the other side of the tracks are the marathoners, led by 2:11 shot caller, Nick Arciniaga. Backing him up are Tyler McCandless, Sergio Reyes, Craig Curley and Patrick Rizzo. Yeah, I think guys like Michael Eaton, Scott MacPherson or Abdelaaziz Atmani can finish in the top 5, but I'm not sure if they have the firepower to win.
If this was a straight up half-marathon, scored cross country style, it wouldn't be out of the realm to have the speedsters get a perfect, 1st-5th score. All five of them have run very fast from the mile through 25k and most of them are very consistent in those distances. But the marathon can be cruel and with the threat of the Grim Reaper sneak attacking you anytime after 20 miles, anything can happen.
The speedsters will want to stay as relaxed as possible for as long as possible. They are much more accomplished over the shorter stuff and haven't proven themselves in the marathon, so why take a chance with 25 G's on the line? If one of them wants to win, I believe they have to be the last one to strike and only when the final pack is very thin. With the temperature looking nearly ideal and the potential for a tailwind, they have to be entering the race more confidently. Those conditions will make it easier to stay relaxed and make the pace feel a good bit easier, which is exactly what you want in a marathon.
While the marathoners don't have the speedsters wheels, they have more rodeos under their belt and have answered the question about how they can perform in the 26.2 mile distance. Arciniaga has run two 2:11s. Reyes won the US Championships on this course in 2010 and pretty much never has a bad race. Rizzo ran 2:13 at the last Olympic Trials and McCandless is having a heck of a year and ran a pretty easy 2:21 a few weeks ago on a hot and hilly course. I don't know a lot about Curley, except that he ran really well at the US 25k Championships in May, sometimes races in a hat and makes me feel fat. The other advantage I believe these guys have is that as a whole (every individual is different), they are running tomorrow more for the pride and glory instead of the money. Who do you want in battle? A hired mercenary or someone who wants to fight?
The marathoners may feel like they have the pressure on them. They should go into the race expecting to do a large part of the work but with that, they can also control the style and nature of the race. The guys wanting to hang back are entering somewhat of an unknown race without knowing how the race will unfold. That should cause at least a hair of uncertainty and fear. I know Arciniaga has had some rough races lately, but he should enter this race feeling like he's the favorite, rather than worrying about guys with better running resumes than him. The downside to that though, is that if he wants to set a quick pace, he may have to do it on his own. Leading a marathon wire-to-wire is tough and requires a ton of mental energy but he may have the tools to do it. If I were him, I would have gotten one of his Flagstaff crew to enter the marathon and secretly be his rabbit and run sub 5:00 pace for the first 15-18 miles, before dropping out and then give them a portion of my winnings.
But it doesn't look like that will happen, so here's what I think would be the best thing for him. If he reads this and wins using this strategy, he owes me a beer one day. If I were him, I wouldn't start off that hard. Maybe let some other guys do some work as long as the pace stays around 5:05 pace or so. At that effort, the pace is going to feel really relaxed for the speedier guys. They are 61-62 minute marathoners, so coming through a half in 66 minutes is going to feel like a stroll. A little bit after the half, I think it'd be good to throw in some hardish, moderate length surges. Maybe a 4:50 mile here and there. Again, I think those would still feel pretty easy at first to the fast guys but it would serve the same purpose as body shots do in a boxing match. Body shots don't hurt that much at first (unless it's a shin to the liver, which doesn't feel good at all). They are designed to put wear-and-tear on the fighter over time. While they may feel ok for a while, once the cumulative damage starts to kick in, they begin to slowly fall apart and then, that's when you go for the knock-out and start the real racing. And not only will the surges cause physical damage and burn up some of their glycogen stores, but mentally, it causes damage. A marathon is a long way to focus and if you can get someone to spend too much mental energy early on, they are going to have a harder time really zoning in when it matters most.
Now how can the other marathoner-types win? Bide their time, hope Arciniaga and the speedsters get in a racing rumble early on and then enter the battle late in the race, after the guys have beat each other up. It's like an old school Royal Rumble. You don't have to be the best 'rassler in the ring to win, if you enter the ring later than everyone else.
Another factor that will throw a wrench or cash in the way of others is the long, gradual climb between 20.25-23 miles. It only climbs a little over 150 feet during that time but that's when the marathon can get very difficult, even on a dead flat course. Throw some pre-hill surges into the legs of some guys before that and you can break them during and after the hill (assuming you don't break yourself).
So that's my view on the men's race. If you put a gun to my head and make me pick the three guys who have the best shot at winning, I'm going with Arciniaga, Biwott and Boit with McCandless being my sentimental favorite. I don't think there's a nicer pro marathoner out there.
While following the race will be exciting, I'm pretty bummed I'm not racing it. I haven't had a shot to run a deep, competitive marathon yet and I think it'd be fun to duke it out with those guys and see if I could sneak away with a top 5 finish. Hopefully CIM will be stacked.
I can't even figure out my wife sometimes, so I'm not going to try to guess how the women's race unfolds. However, I will say that I believe Meghan Armstrong Peyton will win. She's in her own backyard, has had a heck of a year, really seems to have her head on straight and doesn't have to worry about a particularly deep field.
If I were Matt Tegenkamp's coach, I would have thrown him into this race. Maybe he's getting a sweet appearance fee for racing Chicago, but this would have been the perfect race for him. He would be the favorite (and maybe a big one) and he would be able to hang at the front of the pack the entire race and work on getting a knack for marathon racing tactics while also getting a feel for the marathon distance. Then in the spring, he could run a fast time-trial type marathon. No more armchair quarterbacking him and onto armchair quarterbacking others.
I view this race as a two-gang fight until one man is left. The first gang is the speedsters. They either haven't run a marathon yet or haven't run that matches up with their abilities in the shorter distances. I'm dubbing Shadrack Biwott as the leader of these roughens, with Josphat Boit, Joseph Chirlee, Christo Landry and Tim Ritchie backing him up. On the other side of the tracks are the marathoners, led by 2:11 shot caller, Nick Arciniaga. Backing him up are Tyler McCandless, Sergio Reyes, Craig Curley and Patrick Rizzo. Yeah, I think guys like Michael Eaton, Scott MacPherson or Abdelaaziz Atmani can finish in the top 5, but I'm not sure if they have the firepower to win.
If this was a straight up half-marathon, scored cross country style, it wouldn't be out of the realm to have the speedsters get a perfect, 1st-5th score. All five of them have run very fast from the mile through 25k and most of them are very consistent in those distances. But the marathon can be cruel and with the threat of the Grim Reaper sneak attacking you anytime after 20 miles, anything can happen.
The speedsters will want to stay as relaxed as possible for as long as possible. They are much more accomplished over the shorter stuff and haven't proven themselves in the marathon, so why take a chance with 25 G's on the line? If one of them wants to win, I believe they have to be the last one to strike and only when the final pack is very thin. With the temperature looking nearly ideal and the potential for a tailwind, they have to be entering the race more confidently. Those conditions will make it easier to stay relaxed and make the pace feel a good bit easier, which is exactly what you want in a marathon.
While the marathoners don't have the speedsters wheels, they have more rodeos under their belt and have answered the question about how they can perform in the 26.2 mile distance. Arciniaga has run two 2:11s. Reyes won the US Championships on this course in 2010 and pretty much never has a bad race. Rizzo ran 2:13 at the last Olympic Trials and McCandless is having a heck of a year and ran a pretty easy 2:21 a few weeks ago on a hot and hilly course. I don't know a lot about Curley, except that he ran really well at the US 25k Championships in May, sometimes races in a hat and makes me feel fat. The other advantage I believe these guys have is that as a whole (every individual is different), they are running tomorrow more for the pride and glory instead of the money. Who do you want in battle? A hired mercenary or someone who wants to fight?
The marathoners may feel like they have the pressure on them. They should go into the race expecting to do a large part of the work but with that, they can also control the style and nature of the race. The guys wanting to hang back are entering somewhat of an unknown race without knowing how the race will unfold. That should cause at least a hair of uncertainty and fear. I know Arciniaga has had some rough races lately, but he should enter this race feeling like he's the favorite, rather than worrying about guys with better running resumes than him. The downside to that though, is that if he wants to set a quick pace, he may have to do it on his own. Leading a marathon wire-to-wire is tough and requires a ton of mental energy but he may have the tools to do it. If I were him, I would have gotten one of his Flagstaff crew to enter the marathon and secretly be his rabbit and run sub 5:00 pace for the first 15-18 miles, before dropping out and then give them a portion of my winnings.
But it doesn't look like that will happen, so here's what I think would be the best thing for him. If he reads this and wins using this strategy, he owes me a beer one day. If I were him, I wouldn't start off that hard. Maybe let some other guys do some work as long as the pace stays around 5:05 pace or so. At that effort, the pace is going to feel really relaxed for the speedier guys. They are 61-62 minute marathoners, so coming through a half in 66 minutes is going to feel like a stroll. A little bit after the half, I think it'd be good to throw in some hardish, moderate length surges. Maybe a 4:50 mile here and there. Again, I think those would still feel pretty easy at first to the fast guys but it would serve the same purpose as body shots do in a boxing match. Body shots don't hurt that much at first (unless it's a shin to the liver, which doesn't feel good at all). They are designed to put wear-and-tear on the fighter over time. While they may feel ok for a while, once the cumulative damage starts to kick in, they begin to slowly fall apart and then, that's when you go for the knock-out and start the real racing. And not only will the surges cause physical damage and burn up some of their glycogen stores, but mentally, it causes damage. A marathon is a long way to focus and if you can get someone to spend too much mental energy early on, they are going to have a harder time really zoning in when it matters most.
Now how can the other marathoner-types win? Bide their time, hope Arciniaga and the speedsters get in a racing rumble early on and then enter the battle late in the race, after the guys have beat each other up. It's like an old school Royal Rumble. You don't have to be the best 'rassler in the ring to win, if you enter the ring later than everyone else.
Another factor that will throw a wrench or cash in the way of others is the long, gradual climb between 20.25-23 miles. It only climbs a little over 150 feet during that time but that's when the marathon can get very difficult, even on a dead flat course. Throw some pre-hill surges into the legs of some guys before that and you can break them during and after the hill (assuming you don't break yourself).
So that's my view on the men's race. If you put a gun to my head and make me pick the three guys who have the best shot at winning, I'm going with Arciniaga, Biwott and Boit with McCandless being my sentimental favorite. I don't think there's a nicer pro marathoner out there.
While following the race will be exciting, I'm pretty bummed I'm not racing it. I haven't had a shot to run a deep, competitive marathon yet and I think it'd be fun to duke it out with those guys and see if I could sneak away with a top 5 finish. Hopefully CIM will be stacked.
I can't even figure out my wife sometimes, so I'm not going to try to guess how the women's race unfolds. However, I will say that I believe Meghan Armstrong Peyton will win. She's in her own backyard, has had a heck of a year, really seems to have her head on straight and doesn't have to worry about a particularly deep field.
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